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Preamble

The occupational hazards of round-robin tennis mean by this stage of the season-ending championships viewers are commonly puzzled, hastily looking for a calculator and striving to determine the complex permutations of qualification. But this evening's contest between Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime, fortunately, is simple. It’s a straight shootout: the victor earns a semi-final matchup against Alcaraz at this season-ending event; the unsuccessful competitor goes home.

The German is the frontrunner for this: the world No 3 is the more experienced competitor, has been the champion at this event twice before and holds the advantage in their personal record with six victories against three defeats, winning both their past encounters on an enclosed hard court.

But … this is the surface on which the Canadian has won the bulk of his trophies, he is full of confidence after his impressive recovery against Ben Shelton on midweek and he defeated the German in the US Championships early stage in late summer. Additionally, the court pace is quicker in the host city than at the US Open venue, which provides an additional advantage in Auger-Aliassime's favour.

Should Zverev be cautious, similar to his performance against the Italian, and the Canadian presses the European player with his powerful serves and fearless play, there is a strong chance the young Canadian – the one-time phenom who was previously positioned in front of Alcaraz and Sinner to take over from the Big Three – who secures the dubious honour of playing against the world No 1 the next day.

The match starts: at approximately 8:30 PM in Turin, 7.30pm GMT.