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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.