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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent challenge of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|