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The historic Ashes series could provide a reason to cheer, but this contest will also witness the Aussie side celebrate a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the 90s. New boy Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day before the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Ageing Team Interest Grows

For a couple of years there has been mounting fascination with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling unit. It is unusual to have nearly all player near a Test team being over 30, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a disadvantage: a Test team boasting a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

I can’t remember ever being so confident at the beginning of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the talking point is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Younger bowlers have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued performing. Any team knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a batch of similarly-timed departures, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a process that would indeed be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, transition is upon them, forced upon this Aussie team in the span of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only miss the opening match, was the team management view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the team balance undergoes a much more significant change with two players missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Test matches coming on after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many newspaper profiles portray him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

Register to The Spin

It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is notable is how quickly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. Who knows what new injuries the opening match may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how tricky stress injuries can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a track record of going down early in tournaments and a pattern of initially small injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Future Unclear

The back half of the series may witness the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might experience transition setting in much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a great day-night Brisbane option, but beyond that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this level is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all a chance for the visiting team. You can hear that change approaching, rolling round the corner, and England hasn't seen the success since they don’t know when.